US.params <- list(admin = "US", # state or country
# q = 1, # Detection probability
# a = 0.346, # Proportion of cases that are asymptomatic # not used
# c = 1, # Transmissability of undetectable cases
# https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
CFR = .009,
# effective.infectious.period = list(dist="exponential", mean=2.67), # our analysis, not used
infectious.period = list(dist="exponential", mean=7), # accepted value
incubation.period = list(dist="gamma", mean=7.67, shape=4.1775942), # out analysis of US data
# from US data (our analysis) (not used)
report.to.death.period = list(dist="skewnormal", mean = 0.6123151, sd = 3.1429762,
location = -2.388990,
scale = -2.388990,
shape = 1.728359),
# from China data: lognormal distribution with a
# location parameter of 2.84 and a scale parameter of 0.52
# (Jung et al.) https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020523
onset.to.death.period = list(dist="lognormal", mean = 19.9, sd = 11.4)
)
Nowcast (outbreak size) = E + I = the number of non-isolated infected individuals